General Forum

This is true! In building my collection, I've gravitated to specific cards. The fact that I may be the only one this interested in the set makes it feel more personal. I am going after my all-time favorite players in parallel colors that match their teams, even sometimes getting lucky with the numbers on the card (e.g. Willie Stargell yellow numbered 179). The ones I've had slabbed will be like framed art for years to come. They've been conversation starters on Zoom calls. "Wait, are those baseball cards behind you? That Dale Murphy card is cool!" :D

I think you are already starting to see the corrections in pricing most players where they need to be.

/999 Purple Magenta Lava Flow Red Glimmer Refractor - Even I like these at the right price for the right player. They look cool, they're fun. But now they're being priced accordingly with their rarity. The uniqueness of colors (for the non-Ohtanis) is losing it's value, but you still have the best hits and inserts holding value well and I think the market is re-realizing the value of print runs.

This nails it.

For a flipper/investor they are junk. For a collector they may not be. But the collectors are getting squeezed out of the market with the constant price increases on getting new product.

$300 (which means $350 after tax and before any shipping) to pre-order a Series 2 hobby box of Upper Deck here in Canada? $800 (which is 950 after tax) for a Bowman Jumbo box?

That's not realistic or sustainable. 

Everything about where the focus and money is in the hobby/business can be seen by the launch of the 'Breaker's Delight' products. All 'hits' no base.

Which in turn means either printing even more 'hits' to replace the ones in these cases into 'regular' boxes or decreasing even further the hit odds in the regular boxes.

I believe this aligns with a question asked yesterday by @CardPurchaser:

"What is the biggest problem in the hobby today?"

One response I agree with by @OldTownCards:

"Manufacturers overproducing product to make themselves short term cash while killing not only the value of ultra modern but flooding the market so much that good cards that were collected from 2010-2020 have also begun to lose value. The collector is an afterthought. Everything is about making money for the manufacturer and hardly anything is seen through the lens of collectors or people who love cards. People who are propped up in the hobby by Fanatics are the engagement farming sell-outs or social media influencers who don’t have the voice of the average collector anywhere in their being and instead see the hobby as a piggy bank. The fact that someone like myself hasn’t bought a single sports product in over a year (after opening a few boxes a week for 4-5 years) should be a massive problem but I don’t think the manufacturers care at all. The short-term cash is flowing but it’s gonna stop soon because the opportunists will leave when the money-making opportunities dry up."

Considering the comments in this thread, it would be beneficial to distill the discussion into a series of key Yes/No questions to reach a more definitive conclusion. Based on my observations and opinions, the answers to these critical questions are as follows:

1) Production Volume vs. Demand: Are manufacturers producing significantly more cards than the market demands? - YES
2) Secondary Market Prices: Are the prices of new and recent cards on the secondary market declining? - YES
3) Collector Engagement: Is there a noticeable decrease in enthusiasm and engagement from long-term collectors? - YES
4) Retail Availability: Are new releases readily available in retail stores for extended periods, indicating a lack of immediate demand? - YES

Considering these responses, it seems we are indeed on the brink of a new era, reminiscent of the previously defined 'junk wax era'. This period could be aptly termed as the 'junk slab', 'junk grading', or 'junk parallel' era.

I cater to supercollectors of oddball card, variations, etc and I have seen a significant decrease in buying. People spending substantially more on food, energy, rent etc is undoubtably contributing to the softening market.

I think there are three factors in play which most of you touched on:

1. Covid time and money  - People were stuck home and IF they still had a job, they had more time and money to spend with fewer options to go out to spend either. That has changed.

2. Chase cards - If you are buying packs/boxes/cartons only to get the 'hits' (Watched a pack break lately?) you end up with a lot of 'junk' cards aka base cards which you might as well post in S/T. 

3. Supply chasing demand - Companies made as many sets as they thought they could sell, inserted chase cards few and far between and overshot the market.  

Like someone said, good time to be a base set collector 

I really agree with all of you points that you bring up. 

You can call it what every you want.  It is just a change in the way things are going now.  Who knows if it is for the better or worst.   Most of us have seen several changes.

I think the way you look at it.   Is the way you collect.   Over the years I have wondered what the hobby would like in a few years.    The only thing that has really surprised me was the amount of money some people are willing to pay.   Not just for the rare and old cards but just what is pulled out of a new pack.

The supply and demand = price.     Just because you cannot find a card does not mean there are not a million of them produced.     Just because there are millions of the card produced means there are anyone that wants it.

Supply is what you can find now.   Demand is who you can find that want it now. 

One thing I have seen and heard about is:  A lot of people have large number of cards stored away and will not or cannot get to them and put them out to the market.  A couple of dealers tell me it is not worth their time and effect to look for cards that I want.