General Forum

Can we pinpoint the problem and fix it or is it too far gone?

I know i've likely beat this horse before but we are passionate about the hobby(in case you didn't know).

Too much is insane and riding way too high or is this the new norm?

2022 Contenders Optic 6 card box 300$

2023 Prizm UFC FOTL box 800$

Kaka Disney 600-700$ a box

There's going to be a crash right? 

Enough people will suddenly stop buying into breaks, the sudden breakers will go away and prices will come back to reasonable Earth, or is that solid dreaming?

Are these breakers enablers and amazing spokespersons for breaking at any price that the manufacturers set?

Are breakers the reason why prices remain high?

Oh how we long for a 36 pack box with 15 cards per pack or shall we cut to the chase, not care about 90% of the leagues and make 90 card sets with 110 sp's with a 1card pack every second box?

Most of the sets that have those extremely high prices for very few cards are Panini, and I don’t think they have much longer until Fanatics takes it all.

That segment seems doomed to me.

The hobby is fine. I have been focusing on some of the few things I didn't complete in the junk era and prior because it is affordable. I don't really care about modern stuff.

Simple economics and apparently they're supplying a demand; of which I'm not targeted. 

When you have a lot of interest, then there needs to be a lot of product to meet the interest. But a lot of product diminishes the value. And since potential value is part of what creates a lot of interest, we have a Gordian Knot. Solutions to having it both ways have created new problems more than they've solved the old ones, at least for collectors, yet the market has grown, so it is working for sellers.. for now. 

One idea I'd like to see attempted is to replicate the situation in 1910. A few cards were included in a product (cigarettes) that everyone bought every day. And there were multiple series, and non-sport series involved. There were no factory sets or other ways to get the cards. If it was tied to a similar product or series of products (not cigarettes), then it would make it less economical for dealers to buy and resell at a mark-up. You'd have a ton of cards going out into the marketplace, but there'd be value potential for a variety of market factors (most people throwing them away, difficulty in acquiring specific cards in typical speed and manner, etc). And if you weren't even sure what series you'd get, this would further dissuade "breakers" and serve hobbyists. And as far as the manufacturers making money goes, the product tie-in would be where it was at. The hang-ups, as I see them, what are the products that would best fit? One thing I would explore if I had the capital, would be to combine a specific food manufacturer with a vending machine franchise. Like if Frito-Lay packaged their snack products specifically for a vending machine line, and did it in a way that cards could be safely included in the packages. It would be interesting to see how that would play out, where the vending machines themselves would become known and sought ought "brand." The perfect product for this would be individual-sale soft drinks, except for the problems of the round bottles and cans and the moisture issues. 

I will give away my best idea since I won't ever be able to make it happen on my own. If I could, I would basically recreate the T206 situation with packs of quality and delicious dried fruit. They'd be individual-size boxes and come with two cards. I'd design the packaging to have the same kind of graphic quality as that era, and the backs of the cards would be specific to the product so that you'd have back variations of the same fronts. I'd also have some regional products so some cards would be regionally specific. This idea depends on the product becoming ubiquitous (rather than attaching it to one that already is), but it is a good product and with the card tie-in could potentially become a product that is at the checkout of every grocery, drug store, and gas station. One could turn this into a huge new business while also giving a huge gift to card hobbyists. If any of you out there are super wealthy or have business experience or connections in any of these areas and want to partner up on the next big snack empire, send me a message. 

I was in a card shop while on vacation last week and spent probably a good three hours going through binders of vintage 1957s-1965s looking to fill gaps in my collection. Over the course of that time, several customers came in with varied inquiries and purchases. One thing I noticed was no one looked in the glass vintage cases the entire time I was there. Everyone was looking at boxes or new packs.

One guy came in and asked what the price was for a box (sorry, I can't remember the box name or brand), the owner said "$550, but I'll knock $25 off of it for you." The guy agreed and paid cash. Then, after purchasing, proceeded to tear the sticker off of the box while standing at the counter. He said, "I don't want the wife to know how much this was. I'm going to tell her $75 bucks." and laughed about it. After the customer left, that started a discussion between the owner and his assistant on how many customers get permission from their spouses to purchase cards. "Is there a roof over your head? Do you have food on the table? Etc..."

Another customer came in, a group of young teens, and asked for a box (again, don't know the name or brand as I was in my little vintage world) and asked if there was a guaranteed auto in it. The owner explained the different level of boxes to the group. They left and came back about fifteen minutes later, I'm guessing after getting money from their folks, and bought a box to split. They were some happy kids after the purchase. One thing that was interesting was one of the kids came over and stood nearby while I was flipping through one of the vintage books comparing it to my want list and said., "Whoa, those look really old? Are there any Babe Ruth cards in there? What is that you have on your phone?" I replied no and showed him the TCDB site I had pulled up on my phone and that I was trying to complete some old sets. He thought that was pretty cool and rolled out to catch up with his friends. He reminded me of the kids from the movie "The Sandlot" with that fascination with baseball history. To hear a teen say "Babe Ruth" seemed surreal. Pretty cool.

I'm not sure if this is a typical day for card shops. Just relaying what I witnessed. I'm "new" to the hobby after not collecting since the late 70s and early 80s. Not sure where the hobby is going, but it's been fun since being back the last couple of years. You won't see me buying a $500 box of cards unless it's full of vintage stuff that I need to complete my sets.

And, yes, my wife knows I was buying cards that day!  

Selling $500 boxes is probably the only thing keeping the remaining card stores in business. 

All I'll say is that if I have the $500 to burn show me the vintage stacks and/or 90s inserts. My want list is more than big enough to gte targeted items over the shiny gamble.

Love snyderart’s post. Captures so much. 
People buy what they want and pay what they’re willing to pay. If folks don’t like where the hobby is going, don’t support those things. I’m a pretty simple guy. I buy the current Topps baseball set each year and spend hours going through every card. Great value in the end. 
And I buy vintage and quirky old cards.  
Do I wish things were cheaper? Sure. But if it’s too much, I don’t buy it, new or old. 
I dunno, I guess I don’t worry too much about things I can’t control. There’s plenty about the hobby to enjoy. It’s a hobby. It’s supposed to be fun. If it isn’t, dump the unfun parts, which, to me, included overpriced modern cards with made up bells and whistles. 
V3