Sonofearl….love your posts. Most of my career was spent in strategic plans and policy. Although I’m not an economist, I had the unfortunate pleasure of frequently having an acquisitions geek on the planning team. (kidding of course, it was the lawyers that were the unpleasant ones). Your posts bring back memories of discussions / arguments about PRICE vs COST.
Although I do love your post, I do disagree on your shipping comment, "Shipping and Handling should be factored into the cost of the card". Are we capturing COST or PRICE on TCDB?......
I view the intent of the pricing feature on this site to establish a basis to determine a “Fair and Reasonable Price” valuation of a card-in-hand. Let’s say that card “A” has an accepted/established market price of $1.00 and card “B” also has an accepted/established market price of $1.00. If I want to trade card “A” in my collection for card “B” in your collection, it would be reasonable to assume that this is a fair and reasonable trade in terms of price.
The COST of the trade is a separate matter. If I ship card “A” in a PWE at a $1.00 shipping rate, using a .05 cent standard envelope, and some recycled cardboard as protection, the total COST of the trade from my end is $2.05 ($1.00 card price + $1.00 shipping + $.05 envelope). If the owner of card “B” shipped the card in a .10 cent bubble mailer with a $4.00 shipping fee, the COST of the trade for them would be $5.10 ($1.00 card price + $4.00 shipping + $.10 for the bubbler).
In this example, is the price of the card $2.05 for one person and $5.10 for another? I would argue no. The price of the card is $1.00 in both cases. The COST difference only relates to shipping. I’m not discounting the price of shipping….but it is not related to card price. I would argue that it is related to RISK reduction. A better packaged card has less risk of damage. The owner of card “B” is paying extra to reduce RISK, not because card “A” or “B” is of a higher price.
What if I see card “A” listed on ebay with a BIN of $1.00 and shipping of $1.05 and I see card “B” listed on ebay also with a BIN $1.00 with shipping of $4.10? Which is the better deal knowing that the established/accepted market price of each card is $1.00? I would argue that the asking price of both cards is fair and reasonable and that the shipping charges are also fair and reasonable (assuming card “B” is shipped in a bubbler). The difference in price only reflects the price of RISK. I’m paying extra to reduce the risk of damage during shipping. I’m not paying more for card “B” itself.
What price should be put into TCDB $1.00, $2.05, $5.10? Personally, I only want to see the price of the card ($1.00). I will make my own valuation on the price I’m willing to pay for risk reduction (shipping charges).
The price of RISK is why we see differences in Retail vs. Auction vs. Graded cards. This is a way to differentiate / capture / standardize the price of risk. There is more risk in an auction vs retail and more risk in “raw” vs graded. The price differences reflect risk not the price of the card itself.
Fun discussion but probably pointless unless, as you mentioned, TCDB manages to incorporate an algorithm to establish price confidence and has a significantly larger set of data points. The current “median price” method is kind of pointless.
My two-cents is worth slightly more than a penny.
-- Chad --